Critical Minerals Shopping List
October Critical Minerals Report: The Shopping Edition
We crave certainties in a world of probabilities. We must rebuild our framework. Simply, from certainty seekers to transform into probability perceivers.
Unlike payoffs, where we can set precise stop losses and take profits, we can’t estimate odds with the same precision. The best we can do is to enhance the credibility of our probability estimate.
To achieve that, we need to improve our selection and timing. In plain language, to answer two questions: what (not) to buy and when (not) to buy. Even then, we are blind to the probability. What we assign is only an implied probability.
Sherman Kent’s “Words of Estimative Probability” is a must-read book. In his work, he provides an elegant way of thinking about probabilities. Look at the chart below:
As shown, we perceive events with varying degrees of certainty. The top-right outcomes are the most certain, with nearly a 100% probability. While at the bottom left are the highly unlikely scenarios.
Here is the time to remind you of two things:
There is no such thing as a guaranteed outcome; a 99% probability of happening is not the same as guaranteed.
There is no such thing as an impossible outcome; a 1% probability of happening is not the same as impossible.
Thinking in probabilities does not bring certainty, but clarity. Nothing more.
One of the core stages in my investing process is determining the probability ranges. Let’s take, for example, the critical minerals theme. Given the ongoing fragmentation of supply chains and trade relations, the probability of a long-term bull market is really high. Basically, my bull thesis falls in the top right quadrant of the chart, between a very good chance and almost certain.
Recent quarters have confirmed my thesis. The chart below shows some of the critical mineral names and their three-monthly performance.
In the last few days, the excess volatility has butchered critical mineral miners. Despite that, most companies remain winners over the last three months. Abrupt downside moves are the norm, especially for niche markets. Moreover, that pullback is healthy and confirms the long-term bull trend.
And one more thing. During an impulsive bull market, mild corrections are an exception, not a rule. A case in point is gold and silver. A week ago, the news was all about a record spike in gold unseen for decades. It’s normal to have deep pullbacks that fall in the category “record”, too. This week’s drop is an illustrious example.
A cringe note: I love selloffs; melt-downs give birth to brilliant memes. This one has to hang in the Louvre.
If you want to ride the bull wave in critical minerals (or in any turbulent market), embrace volatility. If you do not like it, stick to utilities and IG bonds.
Now, back to critical minerals. My most credible scenario is that miners are entering a phase of consolidation over the next few weeks or even a few months. The consolidation duration depends on the catalysts, i.e., the actions of the Trump administration.
Multiple announcements like the one below fueled the first leg:
I do not expect major news in the coming weeks, as Trump and his team are focused on the November 04 elections.
The November elections are not midterms, yet they are still important. The headline races are for governor in New Jersey and Virginia. Major cities, including New York, Minneapolis, and Seattle, elect mayors through contested races that touch on affordability, public safety, and economic priorities. Special elections fill congressional vacancies, while party switching at the state level highlights ongoing political realignment. In summary, the upcoming elections are a test of public perceptions of Trump and his policies.
Most likely, the Trump administration will resume its mining adventures after mid-November. For the market, this means volatility in both directions, shaking the weak hands. This is a great time to join the party if you haven’t already.
What to look for?
It’s simple: companies that operate the largest critical mineral deposits in the US, Canada, Australia, or South America. Today, I share some of the REE/tungsten names in my watch list.
REE Shopping List
United States
MP Materials (NYSE: MP): Mountain Pass, California; 1.9 million tonnes contained REO; 18.9 million tonnes ore at 7.06% grade.
Energy Fuels (NYSE: UUUU, TSX: EFR): White Mesa, Utah; processing 7,000-8,000 MT monazite annually; heavy REE pilot operations.
USA Rare Earth (NASDAQ: USAR): Round Top, Texas; 1.6 billion tonnes deposit; largest US heavy REE resource.
Australia
Lynas Rare Earths (ASX: LYC): Mount Weld, Western Australia; 106.6 million tonnes at 4.12% TREO; 32 million tonnes of ore reserves.
Arafura Rare Earths (ASX: ARU): Nolans Bore, Northern Territory; 56 million tonnes resource; 38-year mine life; high NdPr content.
Hastings Technology Metals (ASX: HAS): Yangibana, Western Australia; 29.93 million tonnes at 0.93% TREO; 20.93 million tonnes reserves.
Iluka Resources (ASX: ILU): Eneabba, Western Australia; 1 million tonnes stockpiled concentrate; 23,000 tpa REO refinery capacity.
Latin America
Brazilian Rare Earths (ASX: BRE): Monte Alto/Rocha Province, Brazil; high-grade deposits; integrated separation refinery planned in Bahia.
Aclara Resources (TSX: ARA): Carina Project, Goiás, Brazil ($600M investment); Penco Module, Chile ($150-170M); ionic clay deposits.
Viridis Mining (ASX: VMM): Colossus Project, Minas Gerais, Brazil; 201M tonnes at 2,640 ppm TREO; 40-year mine life; demonstration plant by Q1 2026.
Appia Rare Earths & Uranium (CSE: API, OTCQX: APAAF): PCH Project, Goiás, Brazil; 6.6M tonnes indicated at 2,513 ppm TREO; 46.2M tonnes inferred at 2,888 ppm TREO; resource update Q1 2026.
Tungsten Shopping List
United States and Canada
American Tungsten (CSE: TUNG): IMA Mine, East-Central Idaho; 113 federal lode mining claims covering 1,988 acres.
Almonty Industries (TSX: AII, ASX: AII, NASDAQ: ALM): Pilot Mountain, Nevada; tungsten-copper development; 15-year US defense supply contract.
Fireweed Metals (TSXV: FWZ, OTCQX: FWEDF): Mactung Project, Yukon-NWT border, Canada; 41.5M tonnes at 0.73% WO₃; world’s largest high-grade tungsten deposit.
Australia
Tungsten Mining (ASX: TGN): Mt Mulgine, Western Australia; 108.2M tonnes at 0.19% WO₃; world’s largest undeveloped tungsten deposit.
EQ Resources (ASX: EQR): Mt Carbine, Queensland, Australia’s only operating tungsten producer; stockpiles plus underground mining.
Group 6 Metals (ASX: G6M): Dolphin Project, King Island, Tasmania; 9.6M tonnes at 0.9% WO₃; commenced production July 2023.
Thor Mining (ASX: THR, LSE: THR): Molyhil, Northern Territory; 4.4M tonnes at 0.27% WO₃; high-grade tungsten-molybdenum project.
GWR Group (ASX: GWR): Hatches Creek, Northern Territory; joint venture with Tungsten Mining; recent drilling intercepted 1.93% WO₃.
Risks
Given the structural bull trend in commodities, investing in any miner seems like a no-brainer — zero downside, only upside. Don’t fall for that.
Junior miners are as dangerous as ever, even in bull markets. Nanocap miners, like their shipping nanopeers, are always ready to bomb out. Consider these:
Juniors are call options on supposedly valuable assets. More often than not, fancy presentations end up as a moose pastures. If you bet without a price-dependent stop loss, assume you can lose 100% of your investment.
Bet a small fraction of the book, preferably low single digits, and build position gradually on a few tranches.
Time the entry. Follow closely the company you like to pick the timing. It will never be perfect, but the goal is to be less wrong. A sound signal is another export restriction from China, solid drill results, or the government acquiring a stake.
Time your exit, too. Mining stocks and juniors in particular are anything but buy-and-hold. Once the price reaches the target, take the money from the table. Remember, another share-dilution round is always around the corner.
Junior miners and shipping nanos share too many similarities:
Dubious management, generous compensation, and capital destruction come to mind. Therefore, for most investors, it is preferable to play the shipping theme through shipping majors or ETFs such as BWET and BOAT.
The same story here. If you can’t stomach volatility, avoid explorers and developers, stick to mining ETFs or to producing miners.
PS: For more actionable asymmetric ideas on critical minerals and beyond, consider TheOldEconomy’s premium plans: Researcher and Strategist.
Thank you for being part of TheOldEconomy. Here’s to your continued growth and success, one wise decision at a time.
Invest wisely,
Mihail Stoyanov
Founder, TheOldEconomy
Everything described on this site, TheOldEconomy.substack.com, has been created for educational purposes only. It does not constitute advice, recommendation, or counsel for investing in securities.
The opinions expressed in such publications are those of the author and are subject to change without notice. You are advised to do your own research and discuss your investments with financial advisers to understand whether any investment suits your needs and goals.
$CRML #Tanbreez #Greenland
Re Peak Rare Earths (ASX: PEK): Ngualla, Tanzania operations; 214.4 million tonnes at 2.15% REO; Australian-listed company. PEK was taken over by SHENGHE a major Chinese REE company on 29/9/25.