Week 52-01 update

2024 review

It’s time for retrospection or what I got wrong and what I got right. I will start with the failures.

2024 Losers

In 2024, I made several wrong calls as topics. Let's see the thematic ones:

• Brazil

• Drillships

• PGMs

• Uranium

Some of my persistent losers:

• Braskem

• Yellow Cake plc

• WisdomTree Platinum

• WisdomTree Palladium

The fundamentals behind the above themes are valid, at least in my eyes. However, just because I think I'm directionally right doesn't guarantee a profit.

We are doomed without knowing when to (not) get into position. The missing ingredient is timing, and apparently, I failed.

In this line of thought, timing is just one aspect of execution - the proverbial risk management. The others are:

• Position size - Kelly's formula, which depends on risk-reward and probability distribution

• Position management - stop loss, take profit, number of tranches

• Tool selection - choosing the tool to express our thesis (equity, bonds, or options)

All three are critically important because they will protect us fr…