It’s time for retrospection or what I got wrong and what I got right. I will start with the failures.
2024 Losers
In 2024, I made several wrong calls as topics. Let's see the thematic ones:
Brazil
Drillships
PGMs
Uranium
Some of my persistent losers:
Braskem
Yellow Cake plc
WisdomTree Platinum
WisdomTree Palladium
The fundamentals behind the above themes are valid, at least in my eyes. However, just because I think I'm directionally right doesn't guarantee a profit.
We are doomed without knowing when to (not) get into position. The missing ingredient is timing, and apparently, I failed.
In this line of thought, timing is just one aspect of execution - the proverbial risk management. The others are:
Position size - Kelly's formula, which depends on risk-reward and probability distribution
Position management - stop loss, take profit, number of tranches
Tool selection - choosing the tool to express our thesis (equity, bonds, or options)
All three are critically important because they will protect us fr…