About TheOldEconomy and its author
I am Mihail, a market participant, reader, and writer. My investing style expresses the intersection between engineering and humanitarian thinking.
In my analytical process, I use a blend of big-picture analysis (geopolitics + macro), fundamentals, and technical analysis. My focus is on old-economy businesses: shipping, mining, and banking. Regionally, I prefer emerging markets, with an emphasis on LatAm.
You are in the right place if you are looking for asymmetric investment ideas.
The problem
The majority of investors are focused on the most popular companies. However, that comes with a drawback: day by day, there is less Alpha to extract from those markets.
The markets are getting more efficient, especially in the most liquid stocks, i.e., the Red Ocean. This means there is less Alpha per market participant to harvest. We must look elsewhere, the Blue Ocean, where Alpha resides.
This means dissecting overlooked and even hated ideas. Old-economy industries like shipping, mining, banking, and energy come to mind.
Okay, understood. To gain Alpha, we must invest in old-economy businesses.
However, there is another issue. A comprehensive analysis of such companies comes at a steep price, prohibitive for most retail investors.
Nevertheless, retail platforms like Seeking Alpha give a glimpse into obscure ideas. Even so, they have three shortcomings:
Too many analyses, so the investor falls into the paradox of choice trap
Most of the articles are superficial, focusing on generic metrics and data.
Missing one crucial part – risk management, i.e., timing, position sizing, and execution tools.
So, my goal is to democratize Alpha by making it possible for everyday investors to invest in old-economy businesses. Two preconditions must be met: top-notch quality at a competitive price.
And here comes my proposition. My solution is straightforward. I emphasize:
More signal, less noise.
A comprehensive and, most importantly, actionable reports.
A risk management plan combined with proper tools to express discussed ideas.
Sounds tempting. How to get in?
I bring four options to the table:
Free Membership
Every week, I publish an article dedicated to investing. The main focus is old economy industries: energy, shipping, mining, and banking. Despite that, I cover variable topics, from industry primers and region discussions to “how-to” articles and philosophical essays.
Monthly Membership
As a monthly subscriber, you receive:
A deep-dive report on an equity idea
Access to my TheOldEconomy portfolio
Sunday portfolio updates
Occasional write-ups on everything investing
Annual Membership
For 50% cheaper than subscribing monthly, you receive:
12 deep-dive reports
Access to my TheOldEconomy portfolio
Sunday portfolio updates
Occasional write-ups on everything investing
Preferential terms on Pro Membership
TheOldEconomy Pro Membership
This subscription is for hardcore retail investors, fund managers, and institutional investors. If you seek exposure to niche themes like shipping, emerging markets, and mining via options, fixed-income, and equity, a Pro Membership is for you.
It gives access to Annual plan perks: monthly deep-dive reports, TheOldEconomy portfolio, Sunday updates, and extra write-ups. In addition, Pro members get:
Quarterly industry deep dives: Every quarter, I provide a comprehensive analysis of an industry and/or region I consider attractive from an investors' standpoint. Depending on market developments, I cover 3 to 5 themes.
One non-equity monthly pick (fixed-income and options plays): once a month, I deliver a report covering sovereign debt, distressed debt, or LEAPS calls plays.
The Barbell portfolio. That portfolio is based on the barbell approach and is built on options and fixed-income instruments. The new portfolio will be added in a few weeks time.
If you are interested in niche ideas, fixed-income securities, and options, consider TheOldEconomy's Pro subscription plan. Let’s hop on a call to discuss esoteric ideas, investing tools, and risk management.
You can try a one-week free trial to get an idea of what Pro membership is like. Send a shout via DM or email (office@investo.bg).
All good, but can I take a test drive?
Yes, of course. Please visit the Test Drive section. It answers the question: What will I miss if I do not become a paid subscriber?
In the Test Drive section, you will find the following:
The Barbell Portfolio showcase and discussion
Quarterly deep dive: PGM market 1Q24 review
Reports representing the monthly stock picks (Scorpio Tankers, Freeport McMoRan, Grupo Galicia) you will receive once per month.
My portfolio and my investing approach are explained in five points.
Mihail in other media
You can take a look at my work for Seeking Alpha and Emerging Real Estate Digest. Take a peek at the links below:
My articles for Emerging Real and Emerging Business:
Milei’s Historic “Pacto de Mayo” to Revive Argentina’s Economy and Real Estate Market
Navigating the Platinum Market: The Role of South Africa's 2024 Elections
My reports for Seeking Alpha:
Afya: Asymmetric Bet On The Solid Brazilian Demography And A Great Business
Denison Mines: Top Projects, Robust Balance Sheet, And Deeply Undervalued
BBVA: Macro Bet On Turkey And Mexico's Growth Potential For Income-Minded Investors
Agnico Eagle: Asymmetric Bet On Gold With Capped Downside Using LEAPS Options
Everything described in this site, TheOldEconomy.substack.com, has been created for educational purposes only. It does not constitute advice, recommendation, or counsel for investing in securities.
The opinions expressed in such publications are those of the author and are subject to change without notice. You are advised to do your own research and discuss your investments with financial advisers to understand whether any investment suits your needs and goals.
