The more efficient the market becomes in the short-term, the more opportunities we'll have in the long-term. Recently, oil, copper, and PGMS were priced like demand was going away. I bought oil, copper, and PGMs options and stocks and planned to hold for the long-term. Then both the short and long-term aligned. I messed up my timing and sold too much too early, but I still had outstanding returns. If I did it the opposite, buying based on short-term only, I could have lost almost all of it.
Great summary. The dissonance between short-term efficiency and long-term inefficiency indeed is where Alpha resides.
Short-term plays are becoming more difficult due to abrupt narrative shifts. I prefer to stick with the long-term trend. Predicting fundamentals is less difficult than predicting the consensus of market participants.
The more efficient the market becomes in the short-term, the more opportunities we'll have in the long-term. Recently, oil, copper, and PGMS were priced like demand was going away. I bought oil, copper, and PGMs options and stocks and planned to hold for the long-term. Then both the short and long-term aligned. I messed up my timing and sold too much too early, but I still had outstanding returns. If I did it the opposite, buying based on short-term only, I could have lost almost all of it.
Great summary. The dissonance between short-term efficiency and long-term inefficiency indeed is where Alpha resides.
Short-term plays are becoming more difficult due to abrupt narrative shifts. I prefer to stick with the long-term trend. Predicting fundamentals is less difficult than predicting the consensus of market participants.
Very well done.
Thanks!
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