Navigating the New Substack Order: Change, AI, and the Future of Investing
Execution and Authenticity Reign Supreme
It does not matter how addicted we are to certainty. Change is inevitable. This is one of the few certainties in life and investing.
TheOldEconomy's time for change has come. Over the last 14 months, I have had an inspiring journey, and I have learned a lot about myself, investing, and business.
Lesson one: Although investing and businesses share much in common, they are qualitatively different animals.
Investing vs Business
In investing and business, we are the center of gravity. In other words, all trials and tribulations are on us. We are the judge, the defendant, and the plaintiff.
Another common aspect is that we always wager on the unknowable future, regardless of whether we sell protein bars or have a long position in VLCC tankers. In any case, we play according to our most credible scenario for the future.
To keep up with legal analogies, unlike in court, where we are innocent until proven otherwise, in investing and business, it is precisely the opposite. We are wrong until proven otherwise.
However, the most striking similarity between business and investing is the importance of execution. Many people have presumptively brilliant ideas, yet a single-digit percentage of them take the step to test them. Even a tinier fraction succeeds. The missing element is the execution of the idea.
The same is true in investing. Nowadays, we can find well-articulated analyses even for free. However, this is far from enough for profitable trades. Again, the missing link is the proverbial execution, or as it is called in investing, risk management.
Enough for similarities. Now, let’s move on to the interesting part: differences.
The first distinction is that investing is a lonely endeavor. Until you manage your own money, other people do not matter. The three pillars of your game are yourself, financial markets, and a brokerage account. The outside world has nothing to do with all that.
Once you enter business, other people are a prerequisite for success, although the latter is far from guaranteed. Simply, we need an audience with a problem. Then we have to provide a viable solution and communicate it to our potential customers. Easier said than done.
And here starts my story. I assumed that investing and business are the same. Therefore, if I am good enough in the former, it will translate into the latter. I fell prey to another fallacy. Though life is simple, it is not linear.
In the last few weeks, I have spent time reflecting on what to change and, most importantly, how to avoid falling into the same traps again. My objective was to figure out how to remain relevant and competitive as a creator in the emerging New Substack Order.
Before I share my plans for TheOldEconomy, it's time for philosophical inquiry.
Read me: This is probably one of the longest and most controversial (and maybe unreadable) pieces I've published here. For readers who are not enticed to read about Nokia phones, the Mediocrity Industrial Complex, and AI impact, I recommend skipping the following chapter and jumping to the last one, “The New Substack Order and TheOldEconomy.”
Ever-accelerating Change
We live in truly unprecedented times. Although change has been constant throughout history, the rate of change has accelerated in recent decades. For a short period, we experienced unbelievable technological developments. It is astonishing how we have moved to a digital existence in a matter of several years. We conduct daily chores, perform business transactions, and nurture romantic relationships relying on digital tools.
I remember the times when we had mobile phones with buttons (image via Wikipedia):
Nokia has made exceptionally designed and crafted phones. Back in the day, I had a few 8910 Nokias. Miss those times. Smartphones are overtly boring.
The phone (Nokia 8910) pictured above was one of the first phones with Bluetooth. This technology was considered an expression of communication engineering ingenuity. I bet most people do not use Bluetooth now, and younger readers even wonder, WTF, is that technology named after weirdly colored teeth?
Let’s move 23 years into the present in the year 2025.
I am writing this essay from a $2,000 laptop with more computational power than supercomputers built in the 1980s. I have access to nearly every university library and can connect instantly with more than 20% of the global population via social networks. Yet the enticing stuff does not end up here.
Over the last three years, we have observed the broad adoption of AI. Artificial Intelligence as a concept is not new. However, there were two major constraints: a lack of computational power and input data. Both limitations have been resolved. Technology has reached an inflection point, plus the amount of data in existence is sufficient to feed the AI.
Why does that matter for us as investors and creators?
AI as a tireless research scout
The impact of AI is multidimensional. Here is a quote from my essay “Stacking Edges”:
Nowadays, the information is instantly disseminated. This means everyone reads the same reports at the same time and concludes the same things.
Then, do we have an edge?
The key is to analyze the data and apply the conclusions. Even if we hire a private intelligence company to deliver proprietary reports, we are doomed if we cannot interpret them and act accordingly.
Adding to the mix of AI and its ability to collect and collate data, having access to information is far from enough. Enter a prompt into a powerful search tool, and after a few seconds, you have the last quarter results, the number of VLCC tankers, etc., …whatever you need.
AI will have a profound impact on the investing world:
Increasing noise-to-signal ratio
Diminishing further the role of informational edge
Increasing the importance of analytical and behavioral edges
So, the ability to perform repetitive tasks such as reading countless reports is no longer an advantage. Everyone can preview all companies in an industry in a matter of days…only if you know what to ask.
We ignore AI's impact at our own peril. Interrogation skills have become a new, well-forgotten edge to develop. Asking questions has always been more important than seeking (ready-made) answers.
Never forget about the old maxim: Garbage in, garbage out. If we ask superficial questions, we get superficial answers. Analysts and investors are not excused from that rule.
The impact of AI is already tangible for the investing community. The number of AI-written content has risen exponentially. AI-generated posts and blogs are what I call the Mediocrity Industrial Complex (MIC). MIC’s first-order effect is the devaluation of blogging. At first glance, this is a deadly problem for us, financial writers. However, there is an opportunity for industrious individuals who know how to harness AI.
To emphasize, my point is not to use AI to work instead of you, but with you. David Perell says it better than I:
I’m bearish on writers who are currently using AI to write for them, and bullish on writers who are currently using AI to write with them.
Individuals who assume that human authenticity can be mimicked with AI-generated content are mistaken. They chase short-term gains with long-term repercussions. The reason is not a secret. AI is an amplifier for intelligence…and stupidity. Garbage in, garbage out, or quality in, quality out. We choose.
The former option is the MIC modus operandi. Low-quality inputs lead to even lower-quality outputs to an unprecedented extent.
On the other side of the scale are the individuals who realize AI's role as a loyal assistant in their creative process. They know that input quality reigns supreme, not the other way around. The quality output follows.
The outcome of that dynamics is a broadening division between authentic creators and MIC cogs, aka AI-free-riders. For statistically inclined readers, the bell curve is exhibiting increasingly fatter tails. The left side is flooded with “creators” who produce AI-generated noise, while the right side has fewer writers who deliver outstanding work. The gap between the tails is progressively widening with the development and accessibility of AI tools.
There is no way to hide from AI's impact. As creators, we have three choices:
Ignore AI entirely
Consider AI as a replacement
Use AI as an amplifier
The worst decision is number two: adopting AI as a replacement. Once we seek to outsource thinking, it is a sign of decay on both individual and collective levels.
Option one deserves special mention. Sometimes, the old-fashioned way is not the best way, but it is the only way. AI cannot write beautiful poetry or a heartbreaking novel. You wonder why?
Unlike human beings, AI is practically immortal. We humans have limited time. To make things more exciting, time is the only unrecoverable resource. The meaning of life, values, and relationships are functions of time. Genuine, emotionally charged work will remain in mortal humans’ domain.
And now in the third option, using AI as a lever. Utilitarian writing is one of the first fields to benefit from AI. Think about the instruction manuals and safety booklets. They contain repetitive and precise instructions. No nuances and emotions need to be conveyed.
For example, a guide on how to change engine oil? It is a several-step process that is always the same. It starts with switching off the engine, letting it cool down completely, draining the oil, etc. Nothing sensational, just a predefined process of a few steps.
To some degree, the research process in investing resembles an oil change. Think about data collection and collation. We set clear criteria for what to include and exclude. The next step is to filter the data flow. Then we have to arrange the findings. Again, we set criteria for how to collate the data. For instance, we need data on Brazil's interest rates or company ABC's profit margins history. A proper AI tool makes finding and arranging the required data easy. Then, we can export and modify the data according to our needs.
Using AI to collect and arrange data, we hit two birds with one stone: first, we save time from chores (the data collection and collation) and reduce the likelihood of mistakes (computers will always be better than us in mundane repetitive tasks). However, the benefits do not end here. Spending less time on data collection and collation gives us more time for deep thinking, i.e., execution planning.
So far, so good. AI is our cheap and tireless research scout. It helps with utilitarian tasks so we can focus on the essentials. Yet, AI's impact extends beyond our research and investing process.
AI and Financial Blogs
AI is a multiplier for authentic financial bloggers. The negative aspect is the abuse of AI by MIC cogs who play the “getting rich quick scheme.”
A higher-order consequence is the ever-growing supply of information; hence, the value of analysis will diminish. It is Economics 101: supply is growing at a higher rate than demand. I wager that the number of Substack creators, whether authentic writers or AI-free-riders, is rising faster than the number of Substack readers. The result is too much stuff to read and fewer people to do so.
What does it mean? We, as creators, must realize the importance of the following:
Focus on quality over quantity.
Use AI as an assistant, not as a replacement
Consider the devaluation of information.
A higher-order implication is the profound differentiation between financial blogs. I divide the Substack finance blog-verse into three segments:
Research-only blogs
Research and Execution blogs
Research, Execution, and Interaction blogs
Research-only media will become cheaper under the pressure of the ever-growing supply of authors and content. Supply and demand dynamics are merciless.
On the other hand, blogs that offer analysis plus execution (portfolio management and trade signals) will still lose value, but at a slower rate. This may sound counterintuitive because, ultimately, execution is king. But there is a reason for it.
We equate the quantity of information to the quality of the conclusion and, hence, the quality of trade.
Risk management is undervalued at the expense of overvalued (pun intended) analysis.
Therefore, most readers focus more on the number of reports they receive, assuming this will bring the proverbial Alpha. Risk management is considered a nice-to-have perk but not a deal breaker. This means that when considering subscribing, the majority of the readers emphasize the quantity of information first, then all the rest.
I bet that will change in the future. Readers will start to realize the gravity of execution and demand quality information and meticulous risk management. However, it is too early for that change.
That said, let’s move on to the last category of creators: those who offer research, execution, and human interaction (video calls, meet-ups, workshops, etc.). They will command significantly higher prices than the other two categories. Our overdigitalized existence has made human interaction more valuable than ever. An authentic human touch will become a cornerstone in high-end offerings.
In summary, Research-only blogs will inevitably get cheaper. Research & Execution ones will also experience devaluation, but at a slower rate. High-end offers that combine Research, Execution, and Interaction will keep their premium prices.
AI is the core driver behind that shift. The broader the AI adoption, the more intense the above-described process.
For voracious readers who survived until here, it's time to discuss TheOldEconomy’s place in the AI world.
The New Substack Order and TheOldEconomy
Substack has disrupted the creator marketplace, while AI has shaken the entire economy. The synthesis of Substack and AI gives rise to what I call The New Substack Order.
This regime comes with the following specifications:
Information quantity and rate of distribution will increasingly grow.
The quality gap between AI-free-riders and authentic creators will broaden.
Three media tiers will emerge: Research; Research & Execution; Research, Execution & Interaction.
Due to a supply glut, research value will decrease. Meanwhile, Interaction will gain value. In the long term, Execution will also become highly coveted.
As a writer, I face two choices: I can stay blind to The New Substack Order and become irrelevant faster than I think, or I can embrace it and become a better version of myself as a creator, investor, and entrepreneur. I choose to surf the wave of change.
What is the place of TheOldEconomy in The New Substack Order?
The short answer is Research & Execution. Now, the long one.
TheOldEconomy (TOE) was born as a place for curious investors who do not tolerate mediocrity in thought, decision, and action. It became a favorite spot for industrious readers who seek Alpha in the market's arcane corners and know that risk management is the differentiator between winners and losers.
Here is one more subtle nuance. Our addiction to devouring as much information as possible, assuming this is the way to gain alpha, has a high opportunity cost. Like every activity, reading has its price, measured not only in money paid for a book, report, or subscription, but also in time and effort. And all three, money, effort, and time, are limited and have alternative applications.
We shall not forget the following maxim.
We don't need all the information. We need the right information at the right time.
If we devote time to reading all reports about drillships (for example), we cut time and attention from the execution stage. But the opportunity cost does not end here. Once we allocate all our time to research, we neglect not only risk management but also our non-investing lives—families, friends, and hobbies.
Yes, life beyond markets does exist, and it is waiting for us to be lived.
TheOldEconomy provides tools to escape this vicious cycle—simply put, it delivers the right information at the right time. Based on that, I positioned TOE in the Research & Execution segment, because this is the way to achieve TOE’s ultimate goal.
To recap, the TOE’s goal is NOT to make you addicted to its content and consume your time reading countless reports, thinking that it will deliver Alpha. Instead, the TheOldEconomy objective is:
Deliver Alpha while saving your time.
TOE’s means to an end are:
The right information at the right time
No fluff, just actionable ideas
Meticulous execution
TheOldEconomy delivers comprehensive and, most importantly, actionable information. Remember, in investing, execution carries the most weight for the results.
Finally, it's time to discuss the upcoming TOE changes.
TheOldEconomy Memberships Plans
TOE will offer new Membership Plans. Below is a brief description of each plan.
Explorer: Expand your investment horizons with alternative ideas every week. As an Explorer, you’ll unlock insights into under-the-radar markets like shipping, mining, energy, and Latin America, broadening your options and sparking new opportunities, all at no cost.
Researcher: Go beyond ideas- turn them into action. As a Researcher, you receive two in-depth, actionable deep dives each month: one equity and one fixed income pick. Each report is packed with thorough analysis, clear valuations, and step-by-step execution guidance, empowering you to invest confidently. As a Researcher, you gain access to all Explorer perks.
Strategist: Integrate every insight into an actionable portfolio. As a Strategist, you gain access to TheOldEconomy portfolio, combining all research, trade execution, and portfolio management in one place. As a Strategist, you gain access to all perks for Explorer and Researcher.
New plans mirror TheOldEconomy investing process:
Exploration Phase: sniff through regions and industries for attractive thematic bets.
Research Phase: deep dive into a few names that offer lucrative asymmetry and attractive probabilities.
Strategy Phase: put everything together in an actionable portfolio where the whole is greater than the sum of its parts.
With each step, the value added grows. Stage one focuses on idea exploration, stage two on deep research and execution on individual position, and stage three on comprehensive strategy at a portfolio level.
Technical Details: Schedule, Tiers, and Pricing
A few words about the publishing schedule. Every month, I will publish a short article on:
Monthly Latin America Review
Monthly Shipping Review
Monthly Critical Minerals Review
Monthly Floating Energy Infrastructure Review
Each publication will mark the most interesting developments over the last 30 days and occasionally deliver trade ideas. Monthly Reviews are freely accessible to all Membership Tiers.
I wonder which day is the best to publish Market Reviews. To figure out, I am kindly asking TheOldEconomy readers and subscribers to vote:
The publishing schedule will remain flexible for paid memberships (Researcher and Strategist). However, the number of reports per year is fixed at 12 equity ideas and 12 fixed-income ideas.
To recap, TheOldEconomy will offer three plans: Explorer, Researcher, and Strategist. Present Pro Membership will migrate to its dedicated place, TheOldEconomy Pro. Substack allows three tiers per blog (Free, Monthly/Annual, and Founding), so this change is necessary. Pro membership will remain available for purchase.
Currently, memberships are priced in US dollars. Starting from today, subscriptions will be priced in EUR.
All readers and subscribers will be promptly updated with progress.
Final Thoughts
After 3,053 words, it’s time for the final words.
Change and uncertainty are the only certain things. Think about investing and blogging. They are ever-evolving. Therefore, the name of the game is adaptivity.
As investors and writers, we must choose between ignoring the changes and becoming prematurely obsolete or embodying them and becoming a better version of ourselves. Simply put, the dilemma is to reject and perish or to embrace and thrive.
Choose wisely.
PS: I would like to thank all my subscribers, readers, and supporters. Along the way, I met extraordinary individuals. Shout-out to
, , , , , , , , just to name a few.Everything described on this site, TheOldEconomy.substack.com, has been created for educational purposes only. It does not constitute advice, recommendation, or counsel for investing in securities.
The opinions expressed in such publications are those of the author and are subject to change without notice. You are advised to do your own research and discuss your investments with financial advisers to understand whether any investment suits your needs and goals.
🦉🫡 Greetings Mihail and to all my friends on this platform. Great piece!