Mihail, this was a good commentary on geopolitical implications of the REE industry, where by all accounts, China dominates. I would not be surprised if the next administration, which is likely to be Trump, will enact a ban on processed REE from China, similar to what has already been done with the ban on Russian enriched uranium imposed by the Biden administration. However, I do not share your enthusiasm for REEs being used in EVs and the renewable energy sector, with Ford recently announcing it will lose over $5B this year on EV production, and GM announcing that the company is deferring investments in EVs to ensure, as the Wall Street Journal put it, “the company doesn’t get ahead of demand.” Regarding renewables, we are starting to see many rejections of planned wind and solar farm installations. Big Wind is not only seeing lots of turbine failures onshore and offshore and a growing backlash across America — where local governments and landowners are rejecting the encroachment of their monstrous landscape-destroying-wildlife-killing-whale-endangering-and-property-value-shredding machines. Taken together, if we reduce demand by EVs, Solar, and Wind, that should have an impact on REE demand. So I think the real demand will come from electronics and the defense industry, which has seen a lot of push lately (look at Lockheed's 2Q splendid results).
Thanks for your well-argued comment. I agree with your points about REE demand and EV/renewables.
I guess I did not emphasize enough that in the short term (maybe 18-24 months), EVs and renewables face many headwinds. Hence, their role in growing REE demand is disputable, at least in the next two years. As you pointed out, most major automakers will keep their ICE vehicle production lines. On the other hand, this means that PGMs are coming back.
My REE thesis focuses on geopolitical catalysts like the protracted tariff war between China and the US. You made a good analogy with uranium; Chinese REE imports may fall in the same category as Russian uranium imports.
In my view, it is too early to enter the REE game. Yet, approaching November and the elections, I may take a small position on MP Materials as a geopolitical bet.
Mihail, this was a good commentary on geopolitical implications of the REE industry, where by all accounts, China dominates. I would not be surprised if the next administration, which is likely to be Trump, will enact a ban on processed REE from China, similar to what has already been done with the ban on Russian enriched uranium imposed by the Biden administration. However, I do not share your enthusiasm for REEs being used in EVs and the renewable energy sector, with Ford recently announcing it will lose over $5B this year on EV production, and GM announcing that the company is deferring investments in EVs to ensure, as the Wall Street Journal put it, “the company doesn’t get ahead of demand.” Regarding renewables, we are starting to see many rejections of planned wind and solar farm installations. Big Wind is not only seeing lots of turbine failures onshore and offshore and a growing backlash across America — where local governments and landowners are rejecting the encroachment of their monstrous landscape-destroying-wildlife-killing-whale-endangering-and-property-value-shredding machines. Taken together, if we reduce demand by EVs, Solar, and Wind, that should have an impact on REE demand. So I think the real demand will come from electronics and the defense industry, which has seen a lot of push lately (look at Lockheed's 2Q splendid results).
Thanks for your well-argued comment. I agree with your points about REE demand and EV/renewables.
I guess I did not emphasize enough that in the short term (maybe 18-24 months), EVs and renewables face many headwinds. Hence, their role in growing REE demand is disputable, at least in the next two years. As you pointed out, most major automakers will keep their ICE vehicle production lines. On the other hand, this means that PGMs are coming back.
My REE thesis focuses on geopolitical catalysts like the protracted tariff war between China and the US. You made a good analogy with uranium; Chinese REE imports may fall in the same category as Russian uranium imports.
In my view, it is too early to enter the REE game. Yet, approaching November and the elections, I may take a small position on MP Materials as a geopolitical bet.
Why do you prefer MP compared to Lynas?