Hello, what do you think about the possible impact of Ivanhoe's Platreef PGM mine ? It's expected to produce ~400k 3E+AU, which makes it one of the largest PGM mine in the world.
It is one of the largest PGM deposits expected to come in production. It is expected to produce 476 k oz 4E. According to DFS done in 2017, the mine can produce up to 1.1 M oz 4E.
The mine is expected to start production from shaft 1 in 3Q24.
If it reaches its capacity, it will become one of the top three PGM mines globally—in the best case scenario, it may rank number one.
I am interested in the AISC. A 2017 study estimated a $351/oz 4E cash cost, which, counting for inflation, means roughly $500/oz. If DFS calculations are good enough, the AISC may be below $1,000/oz.
Really nice article, thank you. I hold Anglo American PLC (so not just Anglo Plat). I share your bull thesis on catalysts for vehicles, either with ICE or fuel cells. You might want to look at the breakdown I did for Anglo Anerican following the failed BHP takeover bid.
However, given AAL's desire to offload Anglo Plat, I am considering Sylvania as a replacement PGM play - PGM is my primary reason for investing in AAL. But I want to see how the divestment plays out.
I like Anglo-American Platinum very much. Fortunately, the takeover bid did not succeed. Anglo American would not benefit significantly from the transaction.
The only shortcoming of AngloPlats is the lack of options. LEAPS calls are an integral part of my strategy. So, I stick with Sibanye for that reason.
Jubilee is an interesting company, yet it is not a pure PGM play. It has a diversified portfolio of operations: copper in Zambia, chrome in South Africa, and PGMs in South Africa. What I really like about Jubilee is its clean balance sheet with an 11% total debt to equity. Plus, positive ROE over the last five years, despite copper/PGM/chrome price volatility.
Another way to offset the South Africa risk is simply to buy the metal. If RSA messes things up, owning the metals can't be wrong. If PGEs enter a bull market, it's the same. Can't really loose here.
I'll definitely add some metals (and stocks) at these prices.
Good point. I use leveraged ETCs to PGMs to offset business inherent risks (political, operational, financial, etc.) and get leveraged exposure to spot price.
"A recession risk is always on the table. One thing I can say with high conviction is when the recession will NOT come. This is the next 12-18 months."
What gives you this confidence and is this still your opinion?
The report was written at the end of June. Then, the macro picture, let's say, was not bad. Since then, my opinion has changed. For now, I bet on a soft-hard landing somewhere in 2025, more precisely in 2Q25 or 3Q25.
Of course, I could be mistaken. Economic forecasts possess one remarkable trait: they're almost always wrong. Mine is not an exception.
Fantastic article, thank you for sharing.
Thanks! Glad you like it.
Hello, what do you think about the possible impact of Ivanhoe's Platreef PGM mine ? It's expected to produce ~400k 3E+AU, which makes it one of the largest PGM mine in the world.
It is one of the largest PGM deposits expected to come in production. It is expected to produce 476 k oz 4E. According to DFS done in 2017, the mine can produce up to 1.1 M oz 4E.
The mine is expected to start production from shaft 1 in 3Q24.
If it reaches its capacity, it will become one of the top three PGM mines globally—in the best case scenario, it may rank number one.
I am interested in the AISC. A 2017 study estimated a $351/oz 4E cash cost, which, counting for inflation, means roughly $500/oz. If DFS calculations are good enough, the AISC may be below $1,000/oz.
Really nice article, thank you. I hold Anglo American PLC (so not just Anglo Plat). I share your bull thesis on catalysts for vehicles, either with ICE or fuel cells. You might want to look at the breakdown I did for Anglo Anerican following the failed BHP takeover bid.
However, given AAL's desire to offload Anglo Plat, I am considering Sylvania as a replacement PGM play - PGM is my primary reason for investing in AAL. But I want to see how the divestment plays out.
Glad you like it.
I like Anglo-American Platinum very much. Fortunately, the takeover bid did not succeed. Anglo American would not benefit significantly from the transaction.
The only shortcoming of AngloPlats is the lack of options. LEAPS calls are an integral part of my strategy. So, I stick with Sibanye for that reason.
Appreciated.
My largest position jubilee listed in london was not included but i liked your take on sylvana.
Invested in aberdeen platinum also
Thanks for your kind reply.
Jubilee is an interesting company, yet it is not a pure PGM play. It has a diversified portfolio of operations: copper in Zambia, chrome in South Africa, and PGMs in South Africa. What I really like about Jubilee is its clean balance sheet with an 11% total debt to equity. Plus, positive ROE over the last five years, despite copper/PGM/chrome price volatility.
Another way to offset the South Africa risk is simply to buy the metal. If RSA messes things up, owning the metals can't be wrong. If PGEs enter a bull market, it's the same. Can't really loose here.
I'll definitely add some metals (and stocks) at these prices.
Good point. I use leveraged ETCs to PGMs to offset business inherent risks (political, operational, financial, etc.) and get leveraged exposure to spot price.
That's the sophisticated way, I like to feel and see the metal in my hands. 😅
what are the risks of Sylvania loosing their tailings agrement(s)?
"A recession risk is always on the table. One thing I can say with high conviction is when the recession will NOT come. This is the next 12-18 months."
What gives you this confidence and is this still your opinion?
Thanks for your question.
The report was written at the end of June. Then, the macro picture, let's say, was not bad. Since then, my opinion has changed. For now, I bet on a soft-hard landing somewhere in 2025, more precisely in 2Q25 or 3Q25.
Of course, I could be mistaken. Economic forecasts possess one remarkable trait: they're almost always wrong. Mine is not an exception.